The Oscars are Blog's Super Bowl. Every year, I break out a beer helmet, a jersey with my favorite film of the year's logo on it and spend four hours screaming at the TV. Last year, my head exploded when Chicago took Best Picture. A full week and countless rolls of duct tape were involved in the rehabilitation process.

It's that time year again. The bloated, worthless gasbags that comprise the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have released the contenders for this year's Oscar race. As usual, they included a few films that deserve to win alongside mainstream tripe that doesn’t even deserve to be nominated (but will inevitably win). Here is Blog's potty-mouthed analysis of the nominees.

BEST PICTURE: Return of the King is on list and deserves to take the trophy even if it is easily the worst film of the trilogy.

Wait...did I just say that? You bet I did. While everyone else creamed their jeans over ROTK, I merely drooled. The biggest problem with the film is that it pushes crowd-favorites Legolas and Gimley to the background to focus entirely on their boring, blonde-haired colleagues in arms. The movie is also centered around an hour-long siege on a human city when it should be following the trials of Sam and Frodo. A sub-plot involving Arwen, played by Liv Tyler, is conveniently resolved with little explanation.

It's also restrained by its source material. I've never been a fan of Tolkein and I detest the ending of ROTK. With Middle Earth saved, why do the elves continue to flee? And I still have yet to find anyone who can adequetely explain why Frodo gets on that boat. He needed to die as a martyr on Mount Doom. Fellowship of the Ring should have taken Best Picture back in 2001.

Lost in Translation is also here and it's the one I'm rooting for. Yes, it's directed by Sophia "Daddy?" Coppola and has its flaws. Regradless, Tokyo + Bill Murray + Scarlett Johansson = a movie that seems tailor made for Blog. Even if no other films were nominated, Lost would still, somehow, lose.

Master and Commander and Mystic River are both obvious Oscar fodder. They're both "safe" high production dramas that Academy voters love to death. Because Mystic River is centered around the important topic of child abuse, it has this award in its pocket.

As for Seabiscuit, well, at least they didn't nominate Cold Mountain, a piece of shit that should come with a Surgeon General's warning. Seabiscuit's slot should have gone to a long-shot like Big Fish, 21 Grams or, hell, even Kill Bill.

Prediction: Mystic River. Sci-fi and fantasy films, no matter how good, always get snubbed. If 2001 couldn't convince Academy voters, the hobbits sure won't.

BEST DIRECTOR: YES! Fernando Meirelles was nominated for City of God, which means it will probably be re-released and more than 10 people will see it. His film is a poignant, ballsy take on youth mobs in Rio de Janeiro. Have you ever wished you could see a current movie with the daring bravado of Scorcese's work in the '70s? This is it. City of God is the sort of tragic roller coaster ride that hasn't been made in years. It begins with a shot of a chicken jumping into street traffic to flee a butcher's blade and never stops until the closing credits. Nevertheless, Meirelles stands no chance of winning.

Coppola, Jackson and Meirelles all deserve the award. As for Clint Eastwood and Peter Meier, fuck them.

Prediction: Jackson will probably take it.

BEST ACTOR: OK, I knocked Return of the King. Now it is my unfortunate duty to tear apart your precious little pirate movie. No one else has the guts, so I guess the privilege falls on my shoulders. Pirates of the Caribbean sucked and so did Johnny Depp's performance in it. The movie is over-long, its action sequences are boring, and with all those cloud covered vistas, it looks like it was shot off the coast of Cannon Beach.

Johnny Depp does a great impersonation of Keith Richards. And...? So what? His performance is irritating, inexplicable and distracting. Imagine if Han Solo had been played by a drag queen in heavy mascara who couldn't sit still and constantly acted like they were overdosing on crank. Clearly, this was a practical joke on Depp's part and you've all fallen for it hook, line and sinker. He got away with acting like a tool in a major motion picture and he's laughing all the way to the Academy Awards for it. If he wins, which he won't, I'll laugh with him and AT all of you.

As for the others, no one cares about Ben Kingsley or House of Fog. Bill Murray deserves to win but won't. Jude Law is too young and hasn't lost enough Oscar races to deserve a statue. Meanwhile, Sean Penn's been nominated several times, even for that wretched fart-bag I Am Sam.

Prediction: Because the Academy always eventually rewards those they've nominated numerous times, Spicoli can clear some space on his mantle. And I thought all he needed were some tasty waves and a cool buzz.

BEST ACTRESS: I'm with Roger Ebert on this one. If Charlize Theron doesn't win, the Oscars NEED to stop handing out awards altogether. Monster (yep, I saw it. So there!) is a fantastic, bleak journey into the black heart of Florida. Theron doesn't just portray Aileen Wuornos, she acts likes she's been possessed by her ghost. The metamorphosis rivals Robert DeNiro's in Raging Bull. Yes, the movies has its problems but Theron absolutely nailed the part.

Morton and Watts haven't paid their dues, Hughes is too young and Keaton has already won a million-billion times.

Prediction: The award goes to Theron. If anyone else wins, a vortex in the space time continuum will open and swallow everyone in attendance. On the other side, they will be attacked with steak knives by Orson Welles, Stanley Kubrick and hundreds of other incredibly-talented nominees that never won squat.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Why do people like Renee Zellweger? She can't act and she's not too pleasant to look at. I've seen exactly ten seconds of her performance as a shit-kickin' cowgirl in Cold Mountain and I laughed for three hours straight after getting kicked out the Fox Tower. Still, for reasons unknown, she was nominated here.

Prediction: I haven't seen most of the films in this category and probably never will. Patricia Clarkson? Shohreh Aghdashloo? Who ARE these people?! I've never heard of them and I doubt Academy voters have either. I'll put my money on Holly Hunter.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: In The Cooler (yep, I saw this one too), Alec Baldwin was kickass as corrupted casino boss longing for the old days of Vegas. Too bad the movie wrapped around his performance was as awkward as a junior high school dance. Benecio won a few years back, no one saw In America, everyone hated The Last Samurai so...

Prediction: ...Tim Robbins takes the Oscar. He's been around forever. He's never won. You can bet on it.

BEST SCREENPLAY: This category is always up in the air. Sometimes they give it to a mainstream film. Other times, it goes to the film that should have won Best Picture. There are no rules here and anything goes. Because Lost in Translation will lose in the bigger categories...

Prediction: ...after making movies like Jack and The Rainmaker, Francis can finally be put out to pasture. His daughter, along with her little Oscar friend, can take his place.

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Finding Nemo. Ugh, yet another beloved film I'll never understand. It's become the highest grossing movie in Pixar's catalog and it's the only one I didn't think was less than a masterpiece. Nemo is episodic, horribly redundant, obvious, boring and it stars Albert "Never been funny, never will be funny" Brooks. How many "Oh no! The main character is dead, no wait, he's alive. Hooray!" cop-outs does one movie need? Yes, I'm at least 10 years too old to enjoy a movie like this but so is 95% of Nemo's fanbase. This doesn't change the fact that it sucky-sucky-sucked.

Triplets of Bellville (yep, I even saw this one) is a bit tedious but still a film chock full of weirdness and brilliant character design. It deserves to win. As for Brother Bear...no one gives two tenths of a fuck about Brother Bear. It was the death knell for Disney's traditional animation department and doesn't even deserve to be nominated.

Prediction: Obviously the fish movie will get it.

BEST FOREIGN FILM: Uh...er...I haven't seen any of the nominees.

Prediction: The Barbarian Invasions is the only one that made it to Portland. It played for two weeks. Therefore, somehow, it will win.

ALL THE OTHER CATEGORIES: No one cares so neither do I.

Whew! That was fun. Did you actually read all of that? If you did, you deserve a prize. For lack of anything better, here's this.